The First Move.
The people and capital behind the AI race.
How the Frontier Labs Make Money
OpenAI and Anthropic both sell intelligence. They run completely different businesses to do it. Here's where the money comes from, where it goes, and what it means if you're building on top of them.
Written by Jack Leyden  |  Issue 03
Together with Accelera Growth Partners, helping AI founders learn, build, and scale.

Two years ago this wasn't a contest. OpenAI had the consumer brand, the revenue lead and the headlines. Then, in April 2026, Anthropic's annualized revenue passed OpenAI's, and the gap has widened since. By late summer, trackers had Anthropic at a run rate near $65 billion and OpenAI near $40 billion.

Same product category, same customers, very different machines. The simplest way to see it is to follow a dollar through each company.

The race: annualized revenue run rate
Reported run rates, January 2025 to August 2026.
Line chart: Anthropic run rate passes OpenAI in April 2026, reaching about $65B vs about $40B by summer 2026.
Sources: Reuters, company statements and reporting compiled by Sacra, Value Add VC and FutureSearch. Run rates annualize recent months.
OpenAI
Consumer app that sells an API
Run rate, Aug 2026: ~$40B
2025 revenue: $13.1B
2025 operating result: -$20.9B
Gross margin, 2025: 33%
Anthropic
Infrastructure with a chatbot
Run rate, Jul 2026: ~$65B
Q2 2026 revenue: $10.9B (proj.)
Q2 operating result: +$0.56B (proj.)
Compute per $1, Q2: 56¢

OpenAI: a consumer company that also sells an API

Historically, roughly 70% of OpenAI's revenue came from people paying for ChatGPT. That's the engine behind its scale: ChatGPT crossed 1 billion monthly users in June 2026. It's also the problem. Most of those users are free, and every one of them costs money to serve.

How OpenAI made money in 2025
Booked revenue and operating result for calendar 2025. Flow widths are to scale.
Flow chart: OpenAI 2025 revenue $13.1B, cost of revenue $8.8B, gross profit $4.3B, operating expenses $25.2B, operating loss $20.9B funded by investors.
■ Revenue sources   ■ Profit   ■ Costs   ■ Loss covered by investors
Revenue and operating loss from leaked financials reported in 2026. Cost of revenue derived from a reported 33% gross margin. Revenue split estimated from the historical ~70% consumer share.

Read the chart from left to right. OpenAI booked $13.1 billion in 2025. Serving that demand cost about two thirds of it, leaving a 33% gross margin, well short of the 46% it had targeted. Then came the expensive part: training new models, research, talent and sales. The operating loss, $20.9 billion, was larger than revenue itself.

The company is working both ends. Enterprise now makes up more than half of revenue, and its revenue run rate grew 50% in a single quarter this summer. And it has added a line no other lab has: advertising. ChatGPT's ads business passed $1 billion in annualized revenue in under 200 days.

The bill is still growing. Inference costs are projected to rise from $8.4 billion in 2025 to $14.1 billion in 2026, and projected cash burn from about $27 billion this year to about $63 billion next year.

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OpenAI sells to people. Anthropic sells to the companies that build for people.

Anthropic: infrastructure that also has a chatbot

Anthropic built the opposite business. Roughly 75% to 85% of its revenue comes from usage-based API billing, and consumer subscriptions are only about 5%. Most of its money comes from companies embedding Claude in their own products, where Anthropic never meets the end user. More than 1,000 customers now spend over $1 million a year.

How Anthropic made money in Q2 2026
Projected figures for one quarter, on a different scale from the OpenAI chart.
Flow chart: Anthropic Q2 2026 projected revenue $10.9B, compute cost $6.1B, gross profit $4.8B, operating expenses $4.2B, operating profit $0.56B.
■ Revenue sources   ■ Profit   ■ Costs
Q2 revenue, compute ratio and operating profit as projected to investors and reported by the Wall Street Journal. Revenue split estimated from a reported ~80% API and enterprise share.

In the quarter, Anthropic projected $10.9 billion in revenue, up 130% from $4.8 billion in Q1, and its first quarterly operating profit, $559 million. The swing came from compute: the cost to serve each revenue dollar fell from 71 cents to 56 cents in one quarter.

Three caveats keep this from being a clean victory lap. A meaningful slice of Q2 revenue came from a compute resale deal with SpaceX, and the company told investors not to expect the result to repeat right away. It books revenue sold through AWS, Google and Microsoft on a gross basis, which inflates the top line relative to peers. And it carries an estimated $80 billion in committed cloud spend through 2029.

What it costs to serve $1 of revenue
The single number that decides whether a lab can ever make money.
Cost per dollar: OpenAI 2025 67 cents, Anthropic Q1 2026 71 cents, Anthropic Q2 2026 projected 56 cents.
OpenAI derived from a reported 33% gross margin for 2025. Anthropic compute cost per revenue dollar as reported for Q1 and projected for Q2 2026.

The real product: code

Strip the charts back and one use case is paying for the whole industry. An estimated 65% of lab revenue now comes from coding. Claude Code went from $500 million in run-rate revenue in September 2025 to about $8 billion by May 2026. OpenAI's coding and work products reached 20 million weekly users. The labs aren't just selling models to software companies anymore. They're selling the software engineer.

Where the revenue comes from
Approximate revenue mix, 2026.
OpenAI, 2026
Enterprise: more than halfConsumer, API and ads
Anthropic, 2026
API usage: ~80%Seats and subs
OpenAI enterprise share per Sacra, August 2026. Anthropic shares estimated from Sacra and SemiAnalysis reporting; consumer subscriptions alone are about 5%.

Where the money goes: the highest-paid people

Follow the dollar one step further and it lands on people. OpenAI paid an average of $1.5 million per employee in stock compensation in 2025, equal to about 46% of its revenue. Outside of compute, nothing else on either lab's cost line comes close.

Neither lab publishes individual pay. What is public comes from court testimony, acquisition prices, visa filings and, since late September, the Anthropic IPO prospectus reported by Reuters. These are the largest figures on the record at each company. Equity stakes and deal prices are not annual pay, so read each row for what it is.

OpenAI: the largest figures on record
Stakes, deal prices and filed salaries. Not like for like.
1
Greg Brockman
President and co-founder
Confirmed in his own testimony at the Musk v. Altman trial, May 2026.
~$30B
Equity stake
2
Ilya Sutskever
Co-founder, former chief scientist
Testified to the stake at the same trial. He left OpenAI in 2024.
~$7B
Equity stake
3
Jony Ive and the io team
Hardware design
All-stock deal in 2025 that brought in 55 hardware staff. OpenAI already owned 23% of io.
$6.5B
Acquisition
4
Vijaye Raji
CTO of Applications
All-stock purchase of Statsig, where he was founder and CEO, September 2025. The price went to all Statsig shareholders.
$1.1B
Acquisition
5
Research scientists
Top of the filed range
Highest base salary in 2025 H-1B filings, before stock. Average stock pay across the company: $1.5M a year.
$685K
Base salary
For contrast, Sam Altman was paid $76,001 in 2023, per OpenAI's tax filing, and he holds no OpenAI equity. Sources: trial testimony reported by NBC News and Forbes; Reuters; federal H-1B filings; Fortune; Bloomberg.
Anthropic: the largest figures on record
Executive pay, deal prices and filed salaries. Not like for like.
1
Dario Amodei
CEO and co-founder
Mostly stock and option awards, per the IPO prospectus reported by Reuters in September 2026.
~$18M
2025 pay
2
Daniela Amodei
President and co-founder
From the same prospectus. The seven co-founders have pledged 80% of their equity to charity.
$16.4M
2025 pay
3
Samuel Stanton and Nathan Frey
Co-founders, Coefficient Bio
All-stock deal, April 2026, for a team of fewer than 10 that was eight months old. The price went to all shareholders.
~$400M
Acquisition
4
Member of technical staff
Top of the filed range
Highest base salary in fiscal 2026 H-1B filings, before equity. A second filing lists $1.12M.
$1.38M
Base salary
5
Director of investor relations
Posted ahead of the IPO
Top of a $425K to $600K posted salary range for a non-technical role.
$600K
Posted range
Sources: Reuters on the Anthropic IPO prospectus; The Information on Coefficient Bio; federal H-1B filings; Anthropic job posting.

Two things stand out. The biggest numbers are never salaries. They are equity stakes and all-stock acquisitions, which cost the labs no cash and only hold their value while the valuation keeps climbing. And the most prominent hires of 2026, Noam Shazeer to OpenAI and Andrej Karpathy and John Jumper to Anthropic, came with no disclosed terms at all. For scale: Google paid about $2.7 billion in 2024 in the deal that brought Shazeer back, and he left for OpenAI less than two years later.

Where the hires come from

Mostly from Big Tech, not from each other. A LinkedIn analysis of 1,680 Anthropic engineers published in June found that 405 had worked at Google and 273 at Meta. Only 48 had worked at OpenAI. Half of the engineering team has a FAANG background, and the median engineer arrived with 12 years of experience.

Where Anthropic engineers worked before
Engineers with each company on their resume, out of 1,680.
GGoogle
 405
MMeta
 273
AAmazon
 197
MMicrosoft
 171
SStripe
 124
AApple
 87
DDeepMind
 62
AAirbnb
 51
OOpenAI
 48
■ Big Tech and startups   ■ Rival AI labs
LinkedIn analysis of 1,680 Anthropic engineers by recruiter Sebastian Cuadros, June 2026. Counts every prior employer in a career, so one engineer can appear in more than one bar. Stanford (68) is left out as a university.

OpenAI has not been counted the same way, but the shape matches. Google supplied roughly a quarter of its hires between January 2023 and March 2026, and Google, Meta, Apple and Microsoft together supplied nearly half. Apple is the sharpest case: its July lawsuit against OpenAI says more than 400 former Apple employees now work there.

Where OpenAI hires came from
Share of hires by previous employer, January 2023 to March 2026.
Google ~25%Meta, Apple, MicrosoftEveryone else: just over half
400+Former Apple employees now at OpenAI, according to the lawsuit Apple filed against OpenAI in July 2026.
~40Salesforce employees hired in 2026, mostly in sales and go-to-market roles.
15+OpenAI alumni at each of four rivals over three years: Anthropic, Meta, Google and Thinking Machines. Leavers spread across more than 150 companies.
Hiring shares from Live Data Technologies, tracking about 1,300 OpenAI employees. Google, Meta, Apple and Microsoft together are reported as "nearly half"; the split between the last three is not published. Apple count from Apple's complaint. Salesforce count from The Information, June 2026.

Where the two labs recruit from the same place, Anthropic is landing more. SignalFire found in 2025 that OpenAI engineers were eight times more likely to leave for Anthropic than the reverse, and the 2026 numbers point the same way.

Same pond, two lines
Where both labs recruit from the same place, who lands more.
 AnthropicOpenAI
Salesforce employees hired, 2026~45~40
Share of Google DeepMind leavers, past 12 months25%14%
Hires for every departure22 to 15.7 to 1
Staff still there after two years80%67%
Salesforce: The Information, June 2026. DeepMind leavers and hire ratios: Zeki Data via Fortune, August 2026; Meta took 21% of DeepMind leavers. Retention: Workforce.ai via The Pragmatic Engineer, June 2026.

For a founder, the read is simple. The labs are staffed by senior infrastructure engineers from five or six companies. Those are the people you want for your first platform hires, and the labs are bidding for them with stock that is about to get a public price.

Five moves for founders building on the labs

  1. Budget model spend like payroll. Your inference bill is the labs' revenue. Track cost per task the way they track cost per dollar, and renegotiate as volumes grow.

  2. Don't build where the money already is. Coding and enterprise agents are where both labs make most of their revenue. Expect them to compete hardest there.

  3. Stay multi-model. Two labs with opposite business models will make opposite pricing decisions. Keep the switching cost low.

  4. Expect the talent bill to follow the margin. A lab that turns an operating profit can keep outbidding you for engineers. Plan comp for that, not for last year's market.

  5. Read the filings when they land. With IPOs in view, the first audited numbers will replace estimates like the ones in this issue. Update your plans to them.

Both labs sell intelligence. One is still paying to acquire the customer. The other is starting to get paid by them.

Which lab has the stronger business five years from now?

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Numbers to know

The eight figures from this issue worth keeping.

 
$65B
Anthropic run rate, July 2026
Up from $9B at the end of 2025
 
~$40B
OpenAI run rate, August 2026
Up from ~$25B in February
 
-$20.9B
OpenAI 2025 operating loss
On $13.1B of booked revenue
 
+$559M
Anthropic Q2 2026 operating profit
Projected; its first profitable quarter
 
$1B+
ChatGPT ads run rate
Reached in under 200 days
 
$14.1B
OpenAI 2026 inference costs
Projected, up from $8.4B in 2025
 
65%
Share of lab revenue from coding
Estimated across the industry
 
$80B
Anthropic committed cloud spend
Estimated, through 2029

Neither company publishes audited financials. Figures are from company statements, investor communications and press reporting, and estimates are labeled.

Nothing here is legal or investment advice.

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