The First Move. The people and capital behind the AI race. |
How the Frontier Labs Make Money OpenAI and Anthropic both sell intelligence. They run completely different businesses to do it. Here's where the money comes from, where it goes, and what it means if you're building on top of them. Written by Jack Leyden | Issue 03 |
| Together with Accelera Growth Partners, helping AI founders learn, build, and scale. |
Two years ago this wasn't a contest. OpenAI had the consumer brand, the revenue lead and the headlines. Then, in April 2026, Anthropic's annualized revenue passed OpenAI's, and the gap has widened since. By late summer, trackers had Anthropic at a run rate near $65 billion and OpenAI near $40 billion.
Same product category, same customers, very different machines. The simplest way to see it is to follow a dollar through each company.
The race: annualized revenue run rate Reported run rates, January 2025 to August 2026. ![]() ![]() ![]() Sources: Reuters, company statements and reporting compiled by Sacra, Value Add VC and FutureSearch. Run rates annualize recent months. |
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OpenAI: a consumer company that also sells an API
Historically, roughly 70% of OpenAI's revenue came from people paying for ChatGPT. That's the engine behind its scale: ChatGPT crossed 1 billion monthly users in June 2026. It's also the problem. Most of those users are free, and every one of them costs money to serve.
How OpenAI made money in 2025 Booked revenue and operating result for calendar 2025. Flow widths are to scale. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ■ Revenue sources ■ Profit ■ Costs ■ Loss covered by investors Revenue and operating loss from leaked financials reported in 2026. Cost of revenue derived from a reported 33% gross margin. Revenue split estimated from the historical ~70% consumer share. |
Read the chart from left to right. OpenAI booked $13.1 billion in 2025. Serving that demand cost about two thirds of it, leaving a 33% gross margin, well short of the 46% it had targeted. Then came the expensive part: training new models, research, talent and sales. The operating loss, $20.9 billion, was larger than revenue itself.
The company is working both ends. Enterprise now makes up more than half of revenue, and its revenue run rate grew 50% in a single quarter this summer. And it has added a line no other lab has: advertising. ChatGPT's ads business passed $1 billion in annualized revenue in under 200 days.
The bill is still growing. Inference costs are projected to rise from $8.4 billion in 2025 to $14.1 billion in 2026, and projected cash burn from about $27 billion this year to about $63 billion next year.
OpenAI sells to people. Anthropic sells to the companies that build for people.
Anthropic: infrastructure that also has a chatbot
Anthropic built the opposite business. Roughly 75% to 85% of its revenue comes from usage-based API billing, and consumer subscriptions are only about 5%. Most of its money comes from companies embedding Claude in their own products, where Anthropic never meets the end user. More than 1,000 customers now spend over $1 million a year.
How Anthropic made money in Q2 2026 Projected figures for one quarter, on a different scale from the OpenAI chart. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ■ Revenue sources ■ Profit ■ Costs Q2 revenue, compute ratio and operating profit as projected to investors and reported by the Wall Street Journal. Revenue split estimated from a reported ~80% API and enterprise share. |
In the quarter, Anthropic projected $10.9 billion in revenue, up 130% from $4.8 billion in Q1, and its first quarterly operating profit, $559 million. The swing came from compute: the cost to serve each revenue dollar fell from 71 cents to 56 cents in one quarter.
Three caveats keep this from being a clean victory lap. A meaningful slice of Q2 revenue came from a compute resale deal with SpaceX, and the company told investors not to expect the result to repeat right away. It books revenue sold through AWS, Google and Microsoft on a gross basis, which inflates the top line relative to peers. And it carries an estimated $80 billion in committed cloud spend through 2029.
What it costs to serve $1 of revenue The single number that decides whether a lab can ever make money. ![]() OpenAI derived from a reported 33% gross margin for 2025. Anthropic compute cost per revenue dollar as reported for Q1 and projected for Q2 2026. |
The real product: code
Strip the charts back and one use case is paying for the whole industry. An estimated 65% of lab revenue now comes from coding. Claude Code went from $500 million in run-rate revenue in September 2025 to about $8 billion by May 2026. OpenAI's coding and work products reached 20 million weekly users. The labs aren't just selling models to software companies anymore. They're selling the software engineer.
Where the revenue comes from Approximate revenue mix, 2026. OpenAI, 2026
Anthropic, 2026
OpenAI enterprise share per Sacra, August 2026. Anthropic shares estimated from Sacra and SemiAnalysis reporting; consumer subscriptions alone are about 5%. |
Where the money goes: the highest-paid people
Follow the dollar one step further and it lands on people. OpenAI paid an average of $1.5 million per employee in stock compensation in 2025, equal to about 46% of its revenue. Outside of compute, nothing else on either lab's cost line comes close.
Neither lab publishes individual pay. What is public comes from court testimony, acquisition prices, visa filings and, since late September, the Anthropic IPO prospectus reported by Reuters. These are the largest figures on the record at each company. Equity stakes and deal prices are not annual pay, so read each row for what it is.
OpenAI: the largest figures on record Stakes, deal prices and filed salaries. Not like for like.
For contrast, Sam Altman was paid $76,001 in 2023, per OpenAI's tax filing, and he holds no OpenAI equity. Sources: trial testimony reported by NBC News and Forbes; Reuters; federal H-1B filings; Fortune; Bloomberg. |
Anthropic: the largest figures on record Executive pay, deal prices and filed salaries. Not like for like.
Sources: Reuters on the Anthropic IPO prospectus; The Information on Coefficient Bio; federal H-1B filings; Anthropic job posting. |
Two things stand out. The biggest numbers are never salaries. They are equity stakes and all-stock acquisitions, which cost the labs no cash and only hold their value while the valuation keeps climbing. And the most prominent hires of 2026, Noam Shazeer to OpenAI and Andrej Karpathy and John Jumper to Anthropic, came with no disclosed terms at all. For scale: Google paid about $2.7 billion in 2024 in the deal that brought Shazeer back, and he left for OpenAI less than two years later.
Where the hires come from
Mostly from Big Tech, not from each other. A LinkedIn analysis of 1,680 Anthropic engineers published in June found that 405 had worked at Google and 273 at Meta. Only 48 had worked at OpenAI. Half of the engineering team has a FAANG background, and the median engineer arrived with 12 years of experience.
Where Anthropic engineers worked before Engineers with each company on their resume, out of 1,680.
■ Big Tech and startups ■ Rival AI labs LinkedIn analysis of 1,680 Anthropic engineers by recruiter Sebastian Cuadros, June 2026. Counts every prior employer in a career, so one engineer can appear in more than one bar. Stanford (68) is left out as a university. |
OpenAI has not been counted the same way, but the shape matches. Google supplied roughly a quarter of its hires between January 2023 and March 2026, and Google, Meta, Apple and Microsoft together supplied nearly half. Apple is the sharpest case: its July lawsuit against OpenAI says more than 400 former Apple employees now work there.
Where OpenAI hires came from Share of hires by previous employer, January 2023 to March 2026.
Hiring shares from Live Data Technologies, tracking about 1,300 OpenAI employees. Google, Meta, Apple and Microsoft together are reported as "nearly half"; the split between the last three is not published. Apple count from Apple's complaint. Salesforce count from The Information, June 2026. |
Where the two labs recruit from the same place, Anthropic is landing more. SignalFire found in 2025 that OpenAI engineers were eight times more likely to leave for Anthropic than the reverse, and the 2026 numbers point the same way.
Same pond, two lines Where both labs recruit from the same place, who lands more.
Salesforce: The Information, June 2026. DeepMind leavers and hire ratios: Zeki Data via Fortune, August 2026; Meta took 21% of DeepMind leavers. Retention: Workforce.ai via The Pragmatic Engineer, June 2026. |
For a founder, the read is simple. The labs are staffed by senior infrastructure engineers from five or six companies. Those are the people you want for your first platform hires, and the labs are bidding for them with stock that is about to get a public price.
Five moves for founders building on the labs
Budget model spend like payroll. Your inference bill is the labs' revenue. Track cost per task the way they track cost per dollar, and renegotiate as volumes grow.
Don't build where the money already is. Coding and enterprise agents are where both labs make most of their revenue. Expect them to compete hardest there.
Stay multi-model. Two labs with opposite business models will make opposite pricing decisions. Keep the switching cost low.
Expect the talent bill to follow the margin. A lab that turns an operating profit can keep outbidding you for engineers. Plan comp for that, not for last year's market.
Read the filings when they land. With IPOs in view, the first audited numbers will replace estimates like the ones in this issue. Update your plans to them.
Both labs sell intelligence. One is still paying to acquire the customer. The other is starting to get paid by them.
Which lab has the stronger business five years from now?
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Numbers to know
The eight figures from this issue worth keeping.
$65B Anthropic run rate, July 2026 Up from $9B at the end of 2025 | |
~$40B OpenAI run rate, August 2026 Up from ~$25B in February | |
-$20.9B OpenAI 2025 operating loss On $13.1B of booked revenue | |
+$559M Anthropic Q2 2026 operating profit Projected; its first profitable quarter | |
$1B+ ChatGPT ads run rate Reached in under 200 days | |
$14.1B OpenAI 2026 inference costs Projected, up from $8.4B in 2025 | |
65% Share of lab revenue from coding Estimated across the industry | |
$80B Anthropic committed cloud spend Estimated, through 2029 |
Neither company publishes audited financials. Figures are from company statements, investor communications and press reporting, and estimates are labeled.
Nothing here is legal or investment advice.














